Climate change in North Carolina is of concern due to its impacts on the environment, climate, people, and economy of North Carolina. “Most of the state has warmed one-half to one degree (F) in the last century, and the sea is rising about one inch every decade.” North Carolina, along with the rest of the Southeastern United States, has warmed less than the rest of the country.

Temperature and climate

Around the year 2080, “temperatures are likely to rise above 95°F approximately 20 to 40 days per year in most of the state, compared with about 10 days per year” in 2016.

If current warming trends continue, by 2080 “North Carolina will likely feel like the Florida Panhandle or possibly like northern Mexico within a generation.”

The State Climate Office predicts as of 2020 that temperatures will increase 4-10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

Coastline

“The United States Geological Survey estimates that the lightly developed Outer Banks between Nags Head and Ocracoke could be broken up by new inlets or lost to erosion if sea level rises two feet by the year 2100.”

Rising sea levels will threaten inland areas because storm surges will get higher as sea level rises. Global sea level rise is caused by melting land ice, and also the fact that warmer water occupies a larger volume (thermal expansion).

Hurricanes

Tropical storms and hurricanes have become more intense in recent years. While warming waters make these storms more intense, “scientists are not sure whether the recent intensification represents a long-term trend.” But it is likely that storms will tend to worsen as the climate warms.

Ensemble analysis of Hurricane Florence indicated that heightened temperatures led to a more intense hurricane, with higher precipitation (~5% higher) and a wider diameter (~1.5 miles, ~1.6%).

Ecosystems

With rising sea levels, salt water can make its way farther upstream. The increased salinity can kill some types of trees found in swamp areas. “Salt water also reacts with some wetland soils, which causes the surface of the wetlands to sink below the water, adding to the loss of wetlands.” This has already occurred, for example, near Camden Point.

Public response

Following Hurricane Florence, Elon University conducted a poll exploring public opinions on climate change. It found that 80 percent of North Carolinians though that North Carolina’s coastal communities would be negatively affected by climate change in the next decade. Sixty-two percent supported consideration of climate change predictions in local planning and ordinances, 72 percent supported restriction of real-estate development in flood-prone areas, and over half agreed that hurricanes were increasing in severity.